立即打开
假如拜登当选,对哪些行业最有利

假如拜登当选,对哪些行业最有利

Anne Sraders 2020年08月18日
几个月来,分析师们一直在分析假设拜登当选会对股市产生何等影响。

猜测结束了。

在乔·拜登宣布任命贺锦丽(Kamala Harris)为其副总统竞选伙伴后,投资者对2020年民主党大选候选人搭档有了清晰的认识。富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的资深全球市场策略师萨米尔·萨马纳认为,这有助于消除一些尾部风险。

“如果[拜登]选了伊丽莎白·沃伦,那会被视为利空,因为外界认为沃伦持着大为强硬的‘反金融’立场 [并且]更倾向于严监管。”萨马纳对《财富》杂志表示,“贺锦丽被挑中可能意味着略微消除一些尾部风险,因为‘现在我们知道是贺锦丽,而不是民主党进步派的核心人物,这方面的尾部风险有所消除。’”

瑞银全球财富管理的美洲固定收益业务负责人托马斯·麦克洛克林在8月11日发布的一份研究报告中写道,虽然贺锦丽被挑选为拜登的竞选伙伴确实意味着民主党候选人格局已经不可能大大偏向进步派,但总的来说,“副总统竞选人选很少会对金融市场产生重大影响。”他写道:“我们预计美国股市及固定收益市场不会对这一选择产生突然的反应,因为这一可能性在几周来已经被市场充分消化。”

但这并不意味着投资者不会考虑拜登—贺锦丽政府的潜在格局,以及哪些行业会对这对竞选搭档的拟议政策最为敏感。

几个月来,分析师们一直在分析假设拜登当选会对股市产生何等影响。例如,摩根大通认为他当选可能对股市有利。但对华尔街(以及广大美国企业)而言,最令人关切的是拜登上调公司税率的决心。

但摩根大通的分析师们在7月的一份报告中写道,“消息面风吹草动的风险可能大于实际政策风险。”萨马纳承认,考虑到“美国经济总体仍然处于低迷状态”,大幅加税不太可能(至少在短期内不可能)。

不过,实际上可能受到拜登—贺锦丽当选影响的一些行业包括制药业。萨马纳认为,目前而言,全民医疗保险几乎已经不可能推进了,但特朗普总统下调药品价格之战很可能由拜登总统继续推进,这对于大型制药公司可能意味着不利因素。

与此同时,尽管科技业近来是个富有争议的热点问题,人们不断呼吁在隐私保护和法规方面对科技业开展更多强监管,但拜登选择贺锦丽实际上有可能对大型科技公司有利。正如《财富》杂志的骆杰峰最近报道的那样,贺锦丽与硅谷颇有渊源,并且呼吁拆分科技巨头的声音是雷声大雨点小,“与拜登的其他选择以及特朗普政府(特朗普政府对硅谷展开了无情的攻击)相比,选择贺锦丽对科技行业而言简直是好得不能再好了。”罗伯茨写道。

萨马纳也指出,拜登—贺锦丽当选将意味着“钟摆向进步派稍稍倾斜”,并且能源以及对环保问题敏感的行业很可能成为输家。“如果你是一家传统的能源公司,形势很可能只会变得更艰难。但若你更偏向于太阳能、风能或电动汽车,那么新政府政策可能会向你倾斜。”他指出。

的确,摩根大通的分析师们在7月写道,在民主党执政期间,特斯拉公司、Nikola和FirstSolar等个股有望跑赢大盘,而阿帕奇公司(Apache)和先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources)等油气生产商类股表现可能会跑输。

与此同时,萨马纳认为,将最低工资提高到每小时15美元(很早就在拜登竞选纲领上的一项政策提议)在华尔街看来可能是不利的,因为这可能意味着“对企业盈利能力的打击”并且“可能会吓坏金融市场参与者。”摩根大通的分析师们写道,提高最低工资对于标准普尔500指数里的公司,尤其是医疗和科技公司,可能意味着“中性到积极的”影响,但它“可能在能够吸收较高工资的公司与那些定价能力及规模较低的公司之间造成额外压力”,梅西百货、万豪国际酒店集团和克罗格公司等个股可能会表现落后。但另一方面,萨马纳指出,最低工资上调的影响也可能被消费者信心和消费增长所抵消。

尽管竞选承诺和政策实际落地(以及它们将如何影响投资者)仍需拭目以待,但包括萨马纳在内的策略师指出,竞选搭档的最终敲定“进一步使人们认识到,拜登总统将向特朗普担任总统之前存在的政治范式回归。”萨马纳称,“选择贺锦丽进一步强化了这种观点。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

猜测结束了。

在乔·拜登宣布任命贺锦丽(Kamala Harris)为其副总统竞选伙伴后,投资者对2020年民主党大选候选人搭档有了清晰的认识。富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的资深全球市场策略师萨米尔·萨马纳认为,这有助于消除一些尾部风险。

“如果[拜登]选了伊丽莎白·沃伦,那会被视为利空,因为外界认为沃伦持着大为强硬的‘反金融’立场 [并且]更倾向于严监管。”萨马纳对《财富》杂志表示,“贺锦丽被挑中可能意味着略微消除一些尾部风险,因为‘现在我们知道是贺锦丽,而不是民主党进步派的核心人物,这方面的尾部风险有所消除。’”

瑞银全球财富管理的美洲固定收益业务负责人托马斯·麦克洛克林在8月11日发布的一份研究报告中写道,虽然贺锦丽被挑选为拜登的竞选伙伴确实意味着民主党候选人格局已经不可能大大偏向进步派,但总的来说,“副总统竞选人选很少会对金融市场产生重大影响。”他写道:“我们预计美国股市及固定收益市场不会对这一选择产生突然的反应,因为这一可能性在几周来已经被市场充分消化。”

但这并不意味着投资者不会考虑拜登—贺锦丽政府的潜在格局,以及哪些行业会对这对竞选搭档的拟议政策最为敏感。

几个月来,分析师们一直在分析假设拜登当选会对股市产生何等影响。例如,摩根大通认为他当选可能对股市有利。但对华尔街(以及广大美国企业)而言,最令人关切的是拜登上调公司税率的决心。

但摩根大通的分析师们在7月的一份报告中写道,“消息面风吹草动的风险可能大于实际政策风险。”萨马纳承认,考虑到“美国经济总体仍然处于低迷状态”,大幅加税不太可能(至少在短期内不可能)。

不过,实际上可能受到拜登—贺锦丽当选影响的一些行业包括制药业。萨马纳认为,目前而言,全民医疗保险几乎已经不可能推进了,但特朗普总统下调药品价格之战很可能由拜登总统继续推进,这对于大型制药公司可能意味着不利因素。

与此同时,尽管科技业近来是个富有争议的热点问题,人们不断呼吁在隐私保护和法规方面对科技业开展更多强监管,但拜登选择贺锦丽实际上有可能对大型科技公司有利。正如《财富》杂志的骆杰峰最近报道的那样,贺锦丽与硅谷颇有渊源,并且呼吁拆分科技巨头的声音是雷声大雨点小,“与拜登的其他选择以及特朗普政府(特朗普政府对硅谷展开了无情的攻击)相比,选择贺锦丽对科技行业而言简直是好得不能再好了。”罗伯茨写道。

萨马纳也指出,拜登—贺锦丽当选将意味着“钟摆向进步派稍稍倾斜”,并且能源以及对环保问题敏感的行业很可能成为输家。“如果你是一家传统的能源公司,形势很可能只会变得更艰难。但若你更偏向于太阳能、风能或电动汽车,那么新政府政策可能会向你倾斜。”他指出。

的确,摩根大通的分析师们在7月写道,在民主党执政期间,特斯拉公司、Nikola和FirstSolar等个股有望跑赢大盘,而阿帕奇公司(Apache)和先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources)等油气生产商类股表现可能会跑输。

与此同时,萨马纳认为,将最低工资提高到每小时15美元(很早就在拜登竞选纲领上的一项政策提议)在华尔街看来可能是不利的,因为这可能意味着“对企业盈利能力的打击”并且“可能会吓坏金融市场参与者。”摩根大通的分析师们写道,提高最低工资对于标准普尔500指数里的公司,尤其是医疗和科技公司,可能意味着“中性到积极的”影响,但它“可能在能够吸收较高工资的公司与那些定价能力及规模较低的公司之间造成额外压力”,梅西百货、万豪国际酒店集团和克罗格公司等个股可能会表现落后。但另一方面,萨马纳指出,最低工资上调的影响也可能被消费者信心和消费增长所抵消。

尽管竞选承诺和政策实际落地(以及它们将如何影响投资者)仍需拭目以待,但包括萨马纳在内的策略师指出,竞选搭档的最终敲定“进一步使人们认识到,拜登总统将向特朗普担任总统之前存在的政治范式回归。”萨马纳称,“选择贺锦丽进一步强化了这种观点。”(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

The speculation is over.

With Joe Biden's announcement of his vice president pick, Kamala Harris, investors now have a clear picture of the Democratic ticket for 2020. And according to Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s senior global market strategist Sameer Samana, that's helped take a little tail risk off the table.

"If [Biden] had gone with, let’s say, an Elizabeth Warren, who would have been viewed as much more, call it, 'anti-financials' [and] a little bit more on the regulatory front, that would have been seen as a negative," he tells Fortune. “What the Harris pick does is it maybe trims the tail just a little bit in terms of, ‘Now that we know it’s Harris, and we know it’s not someone who was anchoring the progressive wing of the party, some of that tail risk has been removed.’”

While Harris’s appointment as running mate does put to bed the possibility of a far more progressive ticket, in general, "vice presidential candidates rarely have a significant impact on financial markets," UBS Global Wealth Management's head of Americas fixed income Thomas McLoughlin wrote in a note Tuesday. "We do not expect the U.S. equity or fixed-income markets to react abruptly to the selection because the choice was adequately telegraphed as a real possibility for weeks," he writes.

But that doesn't mean investors aren't pondering what a Biden-Harris administration might look like—and which industries might be most sensitive to the duo's proposed policies.

For months analysts have been positing what Biden may mean for stocks (JPMorgan, for one, suggested he could be a positive for markets). But perhaps the headline concern for those on Wall Street (and corporate America) is Biden's resolve to raise corporate taxes.

Yet analysts at JPMorgan wrote in July that the "headline risk might be greater than actual policy," and Samana concedes a massive tax hike is unlikely to happen (at least anytime soon) "while there’s still an overall sluggishness to the economy."

Some industries that might actually be impacted by a Biden-Harris ticket, though, include pharmaceuticals. At this point, Medicare for All is pretty much off the table, but President Trump's fight to lower drug prices will likely be carried on by a President Biden, Samana suggests, meaning potential headwinds for Big Pharma.

Meanwhile, although tech has been a hot-button industry as of late, with continued calls for more crackdowns on privacy and regulation, Biden's choice in Harris might actually be good for Big Tech. As Fortune's Jeff Roberts recently reported, with Harris’s ties to Silicon Valley and seemingly toothless calls to break up tech, "Harris is infinitely preferable to the tech industry than Biden's other choices, as well as the Trump administration, which has attacked Silicon Valley relentlessly," Roberts writes.

Samana also notes a Biden-Harris presidency would mean "a pendulum swing back a little bit more toward the progressive side" and points out energy and environment-sensitive industries would likely be in the crosshairs. "If you’re an old-school energy company, things are probably only going to get harder for you. If you’re more oriented toward solar, wind, or electric vehicles, then you could see how government policies kind of tilt in your favor," he notes.

Indeed, analysts at JPMorgan wrote in July that stocks like Tesla, Nikola, and FirstSolar are poised to be outperformers during a Democratic reign, while oil and gas producers like Apache and Pioneer Natural Resources may underperform.

Meanwhile, raising minimum wage to $15 per hour (an item long on Biden's platform) could be a negative in the eyes of Wall Street, Samana suggests, as it could mean a "hit [to] corporate profitability" that "would possibly spook financial markets." And while analysts at JPMorgan wrote a higher minimum wage might be a "neutral to positive" for S&P 500 companies, especially health care and tech, it "could create additional stress between companies that are able to absorb higher wages vs. those with lower pricing power/scale," with stocks like Macy's, Marriott International, and Kroger likely to lag. But on the flip side, Samana points out a hike in wages could also "be offset by greater consumer confidence and consumption."

While it remains to be seen how campaign promises and policies actually shake out (and how they might impact investors), strategists like Samana note the finalized ticket "continues the understanding that a President Biden would be kind of a return to the political norms that existed prior to a Trump presidency," he suggests. "The Harris pick further cements that."

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App
在线三公