立即打开
高管何时“卖”股票,或许决定了你是赔还是赚

高管何时“卖”股票,或许决定了你是赔还是赚

Jeremy Kahn 2020年08月17日
研究人员发现,被收购公司的高管在可能达成交易之前的12个月内,出售自家公司股票的行为明显减少。

过去六周,尽管新冠疫情仍在蔓延,并购活动却持续复苏。最近马拉松原油公司以210亿美元将旗下Speedway加油站业务出售给7-11母公司Seven& I Holdings,这还只是近期多笔交易中最引人注目的一笔。

英国《金融时报》援引Refinitiv数据的分析显示,6月30日以来至少已经出现8宗超过100亿美元的交易,这是自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,下半年开局最快的一次。

怎么才能在下一笔巨额交易发生之前及时发现?嗯,最新研究表明,密切关注高管卖股票情况很有参考价值。

加拿大蒙特利尔的康考迪亚大学和美国密苏里大学的研究人员发现,被收购公司的高管在可能达成交易之前的12个月内,出售自家公司股票的行为明显减少。

即便收购传言是假的,目标公司股价通常也会攀升。研究人员发现,如果某家公司可能被收购,按基准指数来算谣言首次出现后24小时内平均上涨3.72%。接下来20天里,如果传言属实并宣布达成交易,平均超额收益率累计可达13.92%。但即便最初的消息被澄清不实,没有达成交易,20天后仍能获得一点超额回报率,约1.55%。

当然,如此一来高管就很有动力在收购传闻泄露之前买入自家公司的股票。但在美国,高管根据重大非公开信息买卖股票属于违法。而且,研究人员几乎没有发现高管公然违反法律的证据,也就是说,收购目标公司的高管通常不会在交易消息泄露前买入股票。

但研究人员指出,根据此前发表在《欧洲金融管理》杂志(European Financial Management)并在研究资料库SSRN上发布的一篇论文,原本打算卖出但选择不卖并不违法。学界声称,收购目标公司的高管通常确实在这么做。

研究人员调查了2002年至2011年间受收购传闻影响的1642家美国上市公司。并购交易传闻见诸报端的前一年,传闻里目标公司的高管减少了卖出,以至于相比平常他们持有股票的总数平均增加了28%。

研究人员将受并购传闻影响与未受影响的类似公司里高管行为进行对比,得出结论:“谣言前之所以出现大量净买入,主要因为内部人士利用了未公开信息,并非敏锐预测到股价走势。”

最新论文由康考迪亚大学的弗雷德里克·戴维斯、哈米德·卡迪瓦尔、托马斯·沃克以及密苏里大学的昆塔拉·普克特万通共同撰写,证实了2012年的一项类似研究。该研究针对的时间段略有不同,但同样发现收购传闻之前目标公司内部人士大幅减少了卖出。

该结果也与先前研究相吻合,之前的研究显示,往往在交易传闻公布之前收购对象股价就开始上涨,表明交易相关信息可能已经泄露,或者内幕人士利用非公开信息交易。

2015年的一项研究还发现,交易传闻报道出现20天前,目标公司的短期期权交易量出现异常,可能也意味着存在内幕交易。不过同一项研究指出,研究人员发现异常活动的案例中,最终美国证券交易委员会以内幕交易提出指控的极少。

新论文的作者写道,研究指出内幕交易法律可能存在漏洞。文中称,目标公司高管的行为,“(打击了)防止内幕交易政策的精神:从重要非正式信息中获利,既破坏了监管立法的意图,也违背了维持投资者信心所需的道德公平概念。”

不过,研究人员发现的现象也是一种机会。如果精明的投资者认真观察与之前相比高管净买入额情况,或许能提前入手下一次大收购目标公司的股票,从而大赚一笔。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

过去六周,尽管新冠疫情仍在蔓延,并购活动却持续复苏。最近马拉松原油公司以210亿美元将旗下Speedway加油站业务出售给7-11母公司Seven& I Holdings,这还只是近期多笔交易中最引人注目的一笔。

英国《金融时报》援引Refinitiv数据的分析显示,6月30日以来至少已经出现8宗超过100亿美元的交易,这是自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,下半年开局最快的一次。

怎么才能在下一笔巨额交易发生之前及时发现?嗯,最新研究表明,密切关注高管卖股票情况很有参考价值。

加拿大蒙特利尔的康考迪亚大学和美国密苏里大学的研究人员发现,被收购公司的高管在可能达成交易之前的12个月内,出售自家公司股票的行为明显减少。

即便收购传言是假的,目标公司股价通常也会攀升。研究人员发现,如果某家公司可能被收购,按基准指数来算谣言首次出现后24小时内平均上涨3.72%。接下来20天里,如果传言属实并宣布达成交易,平均超额收益率累计可达13.92%。但即便最初的消息被澄清不实,没有达成交易,20天后仍能获得一点超额回报率,约1.55%。

当然,如此一来高管就很有动力在收购传闻泄露之前买入自家公司的股票。但在美国,高管根据重大非公开信息买卖股票属于违法。而且,研究人员几乎没有发现高管公然违反法律的证据,也就是说,收购目标公司的高管通常不会在交易消息泄露前买入股票。

但研究人员指出,根据此前发表在《欧洲金融管理》杂志(European Financial Management)并在研究资料库SSRN上发布的一篇论文,原本打算卖出但选择不卖并不违法。学界声称,收购目标公司的高管通常确实在这么做。

研究人员调查了2002年至2011年间受收购传闻影响的1642家美国上市公司。并购交易传闻见诸报端的前一年,传闻里目标公司的高管减少了卖出,以至于相比平常他们持有股票的总数平均增加了28%。

研究人员将受并购传闻影响与未受影响的类似公司里高管行为进行对比,得出结论:“谣言前之所以出现大量净买入,主要因为内部人士利用了未公开信息,并非敏锐预测到股价走势。”

最新论文由康考迪亚大学的弗雷德里克·戴维斯、哈米德·卡迪瓦尔、托马斯·沃克以及密苏里大学的昆塔拉·普克特万通共同撰写,证实了2012年的一项类似研究。该研究针对的时间段略有不同,但同样发现收购传闻之前目标公司内部人士大幅减少了卖出。

该结果也与先前研究相吻合,之前的研究显示,往往在交易传闻公布之前收购对象股价就开始上涨,表明交易相关信息可能已经泄露,或者内幕人士利用非公开信息交易。

2015年的一项研究还发现,交易传闻报道出现20天前,目标公司的短期期权交易量出现异常,可能也意味着存在内幕交易。不过同一项研究指出,研究人员发现异常活动的案例中,最终美国证券交易委员会以内幕交易提出指控的极少。

新论文的作者写道,研究指出内幕交易法律可能存在漏洞。文中称,目标公司高管的行为,“(打击了)防止内幕交易政策的精神:从重要非正式信息中获利,既破坏了监管立法的意图,也违背了维持投资者信心所需的道德公平概念。”

不过,研究人员发现的现象也是一种机会。如果精明的投资者认真观察与之前相比高管净买入额情况,或许能提前入手下一次大收购目标公司的股票,从而大赚一笔。(财富中文网)

译者:Feb

The past six weeks have seen a resurgence in M&A activity, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Marathon Petroleum’s recent $21 billion sale of its Speedway gas station business to 7-Eleven parent Seven & I Holdings is just one of the most notable megadeals among a slew of recent transactions.

No fewer than eight deals worth more than $10 billion have been announced since June 30, the fastest start to a second half of the year since before the 2008 global financial crisis, according to a Financial Times analysis of data from Refinitiv.

How can you spot the next megadeal before it happens? Well, newly published research suggests it pays to keep careful tabs on the stock sales of top execs.

Researchers from Concordia University in Montreal and the University of Missouri have found that the top managers at companies targeted for acquisition significantly reduced sales of their own company’s stock in the 12 months prior to the possibility of a deal surfacing.

Shares in takeover targets typically climb on deal news, even if the rumors turn out to be false. Rumors that a firm may be purchased typically send its shares up an average 3.72% compared with the benchmark index for firms of that size in the 24 hours after the rumor first appears, the researchers found. Over the next 20 days, the cumulative average excess return is as high as 13.92% if the rumor proves true and a deal is announced. But there is still some excess return—1.55%—20 days out even if the initial report proves to be inaccurate and no deal materializes.

This, of course, gives executives a big incentive to purchase shares in their own companies prior to any news leaks about a possible deal. But, in the U.S., it is illegal for executives to buy or sell shares on the basis of material nonpublic information. And, in fact, the researchers found little evidence that executives blatantly violate the law: Top managers at acquisition targets didn’t typically purchase more stock in the run-up to news of a possible deal leaking.

But, the researchers note, in a paper published in the journal European Financial Management and posted to research repository SSRN earlier this week, it is not illegal to refrain from sales that would have otherwise taken place. And this, the academics claim, is exactly what top managers at target companies tend to do.

The researchers examined 1,642 publicly traded U.S. companies that were subject to takeover rumors between 2002 and 2011. In the year prior to rumors of an M&A deal surfacing in the press, top executives at alleged takeover targets cut back on selling, to the extent that the overall number of shares they held grew on average 28% relative to their usual pattern of activity.

By comparing this activity with those from executives in a control group of similar companies that were not subject to takeover rumors, the researchers conclude “that the high level of pre-rumor net purchasing is driven by insiders’ use of privately available knowledge, rather than an astute capacity to anticipate stock price movements.”

This latest paper, which was cowritten by Concordia’s Frederick Davis, Hamed Khadivar, and Thomas Walker, and Missouri’s Kuntara Pukthuanthong, confirms a similar study from 2012 that looked at a slightly different time period and also found target company insiders reduced sales significantly prior to takeover rumors.

It also comports with previous research showing stock prices in takeover targets tend to increase even prior to rumors of a deal being made public, indicating that information about a deal may be leaking, or that insiders are trading on nonpublic information.

A 2015 study also found clear evidence of abnormal trading volumes in short-dated options of target companies in the 20 days prior to a deal rumor being reported, also indicating possible trading on inside information, although the same research noted that the Securities and Exchange Commission brought insider trading cases in very few instances in which researchers found abnormal activity.

The new paper’s authors write that their research points to possible holes in insider trading laws. The target company executives’ activity, they write, “[strikes] at the spirit of insider trading policy: Profiting from material private information is contrary to both the stated intention of the regulatory legislation and to the implicit concept of moral fairness, which is required for investor confidence.”

In the meantime, the phenomenon the researchers have uncovered presents an opportunity. By carefully monitoring the net purchases of top executives compared with prior periods, savvy investors may be able to scoop up shares in the next megadeal target and earn a tidy profit.

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开财富Plus App
在线三公